Long-term clinical outcomes of patients with COVID-19 and chronic liver disease: US multicenter COLD study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is associated with higher morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic liver diseases (CLDs). However, our understanding of the long-term outcomes of COVID-19 in patients with CLD is limited. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, observational cohort study of adult patients with CLD who were diagnosed with COVID-19 before May 30, 2020, to determine long-term clinical outcomes. We used a control group of patients with CLD confirmed negative for COVID-19. RESULTS: We followed 666 patients with CLD (median age 58 years, 52.8% male) for a median of 384 (interquartile range: 31-462) days. The long-term mortality was 8.1%; with 3.6% experiencing delayed COVID-19-related mortality. Compared to a propensity-matched control group of patients with CLD without COVID-19 (n=1332), patients with CLD with COVID-19 had worse long-term survival [p<0.001; hazards ratio (HR): 1.69; 95% CI: 1.19-2.41] and higher rate of hospitalization (p<0.001, HR: 2.00, 1.62-2.48) over a 1-year follow-up period. Overall, 29.9% of patients reported symptoms of long-COVID-19. On multivariable analysis, female sex (p=0.05, HR: 2.45, 1.01-2.11), Hispanic ethnicity (p=0.003, HR: 1.94, 1.26-2.99), and severe COVID-19 requiring mechanical ventilation (p=0.028, HR: 1.74, 1.06-2.86) predicted long-COVID-19. In survivors, liver-related laboratory parameters showed significant improvement after COVID-19 resolution. COVID-19 vaccine status was available for 72% (n=470) of patients with CLD and history of COVID-19, of whom, 70% (n=326) had received the COVID-19 vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: Our large, longitudinal, multicenter study demonstrates a high burden of long-term mortality and morbidity in patients with CLD and COVID-19. Symptoms consistent with long-COVID-19 were present in 30% of patients with CLD. These results illustrate the prolonged implications of COVID-19 both for recovering patients and for health care systems.

Firm performance during the Covid-19 crisis: Does managerial ability matter?

Challenged by the Covid-19 crisis, CEOs must rethink about how to operate and exist in the new working environment. We examine if managerial ability of the CEO impacts firm performance during the crisis period. We find a positive and significant association between the CEO managerial ability and both the cumulative raw and abnormal returns. We also find that firms with better CEO managerial ability are more resilient and have higher ROE than their counterparts. We find that the CEOs with higher managerial ability have higher pre-pandemic liquidity which in part explains the better performance amid the Covid-19 crisis.

Development and external validation of a prediction risk model for short-term mortality among hospitalized U.S. COVID-19 patients: A proposal for the COVID-AID risk tool.

BACKGROUND: The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created unprecedented medical challenges. There remains a need for validated risk prediction models to assess short-term mortality risk among hospitalized patients with COVID-19. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a 7-day and 14-day mortality risk prediction model for patients hospitalized with COVID-19. METHODS: We performed a multicenter retrospective cohort study with a separate multicenter cohort for external validation using two hospitals in New York, NY, and 9 hospitals in Massachusetts, respectively. A total of 664 patients in NY and 265 patients with COVID-19 in Massachusetts, hospitalized from March to April 2020. RESULTS: We developed a risk model consisting of patient age, hypoxia severity, mean arterial pressure and presence of kidney dysfunction at hospital presentation. Multivariable regression model was based on risk factors selected from univariable and Chi-squared automatic interaction detection analyses. Validation was by receiver operating characteristic curve (discrimination) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit (GOF) test (calibration). In internal cross-validation, prediction of 7-day mortality had an AUC of 0.86 (95%CI 0.74-0.98; GOF p = 0.744); while 14-day had an AUC of 0.83 (95%CI 0.69-0.97; GOF p = 0.588). External validation was achieved using 265 patients from an outside cohort and confirmed 7- and 14-day mortality prediction performance with an AUC of 0.85 (95%CI 0.78-0.92; GOF p = 0.340) and 0.83 (95%CI 0.76-0.89; GOF p = 0.471) respectively, along with excellent calibration. Retrospective data collection, short follow-up time, and development in COVID-19 epicenter may limit model generalizability. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-AID risk tool is a well-calibrated model that demonstrates accuracy in the prediction of both 7-day and 14-day mortality risk among patients hospitalized with COVID-19. This prediction score could assist with resource utilization, patient and caregiver education, and provide a risk stratification instrument for future research trials.

Liver Injury in Liver Transplant Recipients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): U.S. Multicenter Experience.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with liver injury, but the prevalence and patterns of liver injury in liver transplantation (LT) recipients with COVID-19 are open for study. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We conducted a multicenter study in the United States of 112 adult LT recipients with COVID-19. Median age was 61 years (interquartile range, 20), 54.5% (n = 61) were male, and 39.3% (n = 44) Hispanic. Mortality rate was 22.3% (n = 25); 72.3% (n = 81) were hospitalized and 26.8% (n = 30) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Analysis of peak values of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) during COVID-19 showed moderate liver injury (ALT 2-5× upper limit of normal [ULN]) in 22.2% (n = 18) and severe liver injury (ALT > 5× ULN) in 12.3% (n = 10). Compared to age- and sex-matched nontransplant patients with chronic liver disease and COVID-19 (n = 375), incidence of acute liver injury was lower in LT recipients (47.5% vs. 34.6%; P = 0.037). Variables associated with liver injury in LT recipients were younger age (P = 0.009; odds ratio [OR], 2.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20-3.54), Hispanic ethnicity (P = 0.011; OR, 6.01; 95% CI, 1.51-23.9), metabolic syndrome (P = 0.016; OR, 5.87; 95% CI, 1.38-24.99), vasopressor use (P = 0.018; OR, 7.34; 95% CI, 1.39-38.52), and antibiotic use (P = 0.046; OR, 6.93; 95% CI, 1.04-46.26). Reduction in immunosuppression (49.4%) was not associated with liver injury (P = 0.156) or mortality (P = 0.084). Liver injury during COVID-19 was significantly associated with mortality (P = 0.007; OR, 6.91; 95% CI, 1.68-28.48) and ICU admission (P = 0.007; OR, 7.93; 95% CI, 1.75-35.69) in LT recipients. CONCLUSIONS: Liver injury is associated with higher mortality and ICU admission in LT recipients with COVID-19. Hence, monitoring liver enzymes closely can help in early identification of patients at risk for adverse outcomes. Reduction of immunosuppression during COVID-19 did not increase risk for mortality or graft failure.

Predictors of Outcomes of COVID-19 in Patients With Chronic Liver Disease: US Multi-center Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chronic liver disease (CLD) represents a major global health burden. We undertook this study to identify the factors associated with adverse outcomes in patients with CLD who acquire the novel coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: We conducted a multi-center, observational cohort study across 21 institutions in the United States (US) of adult patients with CLD and laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 between March 1, 2020 and May 30, 2020. We performed survival analysis to identify independent predictors of all-cause mortality and COVID-19 related mortality, and multivariate logistic regression to determine the risk of severe COVID-19 in patients with CLD. RESULTS: Of the 978 patients in our cohort, 867 patients (mean age 56.9 ± 14.5 years, 55% male) met inclusion criteria. The overall all-cause mortality was 14.0% (n = 121), and 61.7% (n = 535) had severe COVID-19. Patients presenting with diarrhea or nausea/vomiting were more likely to have severe COVID-19. The liver-specific factors associated with independent risk of higher overall mortality were alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) (hazard ratio [HR] 2.42, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29-4.55), decompensated cirrhosis (HR 2.91 [1.70-5.00]) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (HR 3.31 [1.53-7.16]). Other factors were increasing age, diabetes, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and current smoker. Hispanic ethnicity (odds ratio [OR] 2.33 [1.47-3.70]) and decompensated cirrhosis (OR 2.50 [1.20-5.21]) were independently associated with risk for severe COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: The risk factors which predict higher overall mortality among patients with CLD and COVID-19 are ALD, decompensated cirrhosis and HCC. Hispanic ethnicity and decompensated cirrhosis are associated with severe COVID-19. Our results will enable risk stratification and personalization of the management of patients with CLD and COVID-19. Clinicaltrials.gov number NCT04439084.

Obesity is Associated with Worse Outcomes in COVID-19: Analysis of Early Data from New York City.

OBJECTIVE: The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has triggered a rapidly expanding global pandemic in which patients exhibit a wide spectrum of disease severity. Given the high prevalence of obesity in the United States, we hypothesized that the presence of obesity may play a role in the clinical course of patients with COVID-19. METHODS: This is a retrospective review of adult patients admitted with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Demographics, clinical characteristics, laboratory data, and clinical outcomes were abstracted. BMI (kilograms per meter squared) was analyzed with regard to a composite outcome of intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death and intubation rate. RESULTS: About 770 patients were included (61% male, mean age 63.5 years). Patients with obesity were more likely to present with fever, cough, and shortness of breath. Obesity was also associated with a significantly higher rate of ICU admission or death (RR = 1.58, P = 0.002) even after adjusting for age, race, and troponin level. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with obesity had an increased risk for critical illness leading to ICU admission or death compared with normal weight individuals. This study confirms that obesity is a major risk factor for COVID-19 disease severity, significantly impacting disease presentation and critical care requirements.